Module 09 · Beginner to intermediate

Macroeconomics

Inflation, growth, monetary policy, bonds, currency and fiscal data.

6 chapters · Concepts, worked examples and self-checks

Study it. Test it. Write it down.

Read the surprise, then follow the transmission

What changed relative to a documented expectation?

Suppose a hypothetical consumer-price index rises from 100 to 106 and then to 109.18 one year later. Annual inflation falls from 6% to 3%, but the price level still rises. Describing that as prices “falling” confuses disinflation with deflation. A nominal 8% return with 6% inflation has an exact pre-tax real return of 1.08 ÷ 1.06 − 1, about 1.89%, not precisely 2%.

Your research task

Record the release date, measurement period, units, revision status and source. GDP growth, inflation levels and bond yields cannot be compared as interchangeable percentages.
Separate a measured expectation from your own opinion, and a policy decision from how loans or market yields eventually reprice.
Map competing channels for the asset being studied: discount rate, demand, input costs, currency and funding. Describe what could offset your preferred interpretation.

What you should produce

Prepare a one-page release note with the reported observation, comparable prior figure, expectation evidence, transmission hypothesis and missing data.

The trap to avoid: Turning a lower inflation rate, higher debt number or rate cut into a universal buy/sell conclusion without checking the denominator and mechanism.

Original hypothetical study exercise. Pair it with the chapter sources below; verify current contract rules and product terms separately.

Chapters in this module

0 of 6 completed on this browser

01Inflation, purchasing power and real returnsDistinguish the price level from its rate of change and measure a return after inflation without using subtraction as an exact formula.3 min read 02GDP, growth and economic cyclesRead nominal and real output, base effects and revisions without assuming that economic growth translates directly into share returns.3 min read 03Monetary policy and transmissionFollow the channels from policy decisions to money-market rates, credit, demand and asset valuation.3 min read 04Bond yields, duration and the yield curveConnect fixed cash flows, discount rates, duration and the information—and ambiguity—in a yield curve.3 min read 05Currency, fiscal policy and reading economic releasesConnect exchange rates and government financing to businesses, and build a disciplined method for reading macro headlines.3 min read 06Microeconomics for a stock researcher: demand, costs and policy transmissionConnect customer behaviour, cost structure and the wider Indian economy to a company forecast.2 min read

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